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Piyasa

GBPUSD what next?

GBPUSD what next?

GBP/USD OANDA:GBPUSD

Technically, as you might observe on the weekly chart, the macro (Long-term) direction of GBPUSD is range bound. For nearly a year, the market has ranged within the 2 dynamic zones labelled (dr4 & ws 3) forming a clear bullish pennant. To confirm a clear Long-term direction, we would have to notice a BOS of the January highs for an uptrend, or BOS of the November 2025 lows. Either of the 2 is still so far for us to confirm anyway.

In the Mid-term analysis, as we zoom into the range, we notice from the upper trendline (dr 4) right from the January highs that price has been bearish. We can expect Bearish Mid-term direction for as long as the this dorminant level holds. If we rather have a significant daily close above it, we look for further upside to target the May highs

In the short-term, we are waiting, as much the previous week had strong bullish pressure, this week opened with bearish reaction at our dr4 level. Intraday we might scalp towards the level again but that's risky.

Fundamentals
We have NFP this week, as you can see on the chart, last month weaker jobs data came right at the weekly support (wr3) triggering a reversal due to the dollar weakening. If we can have the same this week then we could expect the bullish run towards the First target hence the mid-term bias changing to bullish.
If on the other hand the we see a stronger labor market report on Friday, we might see a drop towards retesting the wr3.

As always the best thing to do is wait. What do you expect to happen?

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