The pound is receiving local support after the Bank of England decided to keep its interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. The vote was more restrictive than expected, with three committee members supporting an increase to 4.00%, reflecting continued concern over inflation risks. The new government’s cautious fiscal stance has also reduced part of the political risk premium, although weak economic momentum continues to limit the British currency’s potential.

For GBPUSD, the broader US dollar impulse remains more important and is still weak at the beginning of the session. Falling oil prices have reduced concerns about additional inflationary pressure in the United States, US Treasury yields have declined, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September has decreased. This reassessment is temporarily supporting the pound despite the absence of strong domestic economic growth.

Attention during the session will first turn to UK business activity indices and then to the US ADP employment report and ISM services data. Weak UK figures could limit demand for the pound, while strong US data may reverse the current impulse. Until these risks materialize, less restrictive Federal Reserve expectations and the Bank of England’s policy signal preserve the advantage of the bullish GBPUSD scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 1.34550, SL 1.34200, TP 1.35400