One thing to watch closely in the coming months is the price of fertilizer and fertilizer-related stocks.

As shown below, there has historically been a strong relationship between WTI crude oil and **CF Industries**. However, previous oil spikes were not necessarily accompanied by the same type of supply disruption we are seeing now—where the underlying shock could directly constrain fertilizer production and availability.

That creates an interesting setup. If the fertilizer supply crunch intensifies, we could see fertilizer prices and related equities begin to decouple from oil, even if crude prices stabilize or pull back.

In other words, oil may be the initial shock, but fertilizer could become the second-order trade.