Yesterday Recap

EURTHB closed at 38.15 THB per euro, with the euro trading within a narrow range as investors refrained from opening new positions ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Unemployment Rate, two key events that could significantly influence the US dollar and major global currencies.

Fundamental Analysis

EURTHB is expected to trade within a sideways range as investors monitor Germany's Industrial Production and Trade Balance data to assess the strength of the Eurozone economy.

Stronger-than-expected German economic data could provide short-term support for the euro. However, the primary driver for EURTHB remains tonight's US labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, which are expected to shape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

If US labor market data comes in stronger than expected, it could strengthen the US dollar, putting pressure on the euro and limiting EURTHB's upside potential. Conversely, weaker-than-expected US employment data could weigh on the dollar, supporting the euro and allowing EURTHB to move higher.

Technical Analysis

EURTHB continues to trade within a sideways range in the short term, while the price remains above the EMA, indicating that bullish momentum is still intact.

A decisive break above the 38.19–38.20 resistance zone could open the way for further gains toward the next resistance area at 38.22–38.24.

In addition, the Thai stock market is expected to open lower in line with weakness in US equities, which could put pressure on the Thai baht and provide additional support for EURTHB in the near term.

On the downside, a break below the 38.15 support level could trigger a decline toward 38.13, signaling a potential return to a short-term bearish trend.

Nevertheless, the key catalyst remains tonight's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Unemployment Rate, which are expected to generate significant volatility across the US dollar, the euro, and EURTHB.

Bias: Sideway to Bullish
Resistance: 38.19 – 38.22
Support: 38.17 – 38.15
Target: 38.22 – 38.24
Cut Loss: Below 38.15