AUDUSD: RBA support meets weaker US data

AUDUSD is trading near 0.7060 after holding above the SMA 200 and building a short-term recovery structure.

The pair is supported by expectations that the RBA may keep a cautious stance, because Australian inflation pressure is not fully gone. This keeps the Aussie supported on pullbacks.

📰 News:
US data came in weaker than expected.
ADP Employment Change: 44K vs 75K expected
ISM Services PMI: 54.1 vs 54.5 expected
Australia Trade Balance: August 6, 01:30 UTC

Weaker US employment and softer services data reduce pressure from Fed rate expectations and can support risk currencies like AUD. However, ISM prices remain elevated, so the dollar-negative signal is not fully one-sided.

Australia’s trade data is the next local catalyst, because AUD is sensitive to exports, commodities and China demand.

📈 Bullish scenario:
If AUDUSD holds above 0.7035–0.7040 and breaks above 0.7070, buyers may push price toward 0.7090–0.7100.

📉 Bearish scenario:
If price closes below 0.7035 on H1, the bullish structure weakens and AUDUSD may retest 0.7000–0.6990.

⚪ Neutral scenario:
While price stays between 0.7035 and 0.7070, AUDUSD remains in consolidation.

Key question: can weaker US data help AUDUSD break 0.7070, or will sticky inflation signals keep the dollar supported?

⚠️ Not financial advice.