Buy gold on dips on Monday, don't be afraid.

Date Confirmation: Sunday, August 9, 2026

This week's nearly $300 gain is the best weekly performance since January.

Market Review: This rally was no accident.

Core Catalyst: A series of disappointing jobs data.

This week's market movement can be described as a "triple data shock":

First hit (Tuesday): June job openings decreased, and gold prices tested the $4,100 resistance level.

Second hit (Wednesday): ADP non-farm payroll data showed only 44,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 65,000—gold prices immediately broke through $4,200.

Third hit (Friday): July non-farm payroll data showed a decrease of 23,000 jobs, far below the expected 85,000—the market fluctuated wildly. The probability of a September rate hike plummeted from nearly 60% to less than 50%, and gold prices instantly surged above $4,300.

What is "expectation bias"? This is it.

Everyone was expecting "decent" jobs data, but instead received a harsh slap in the face—the US economy was far weaker than anticipated.

Will the Fed dare to raise interest rates in September? The market has already begun to repric.

Furthermore, the People's Bank of China officially increased its gold holdings by 20 tons in July, the largest monthly increase since October 2023 and the 21st consecutive month of increases.

The actions of savvy investors are evident.

Technical Analysis: Breakout from consolidation range, but a tough battle lies ahead.

First resistance level: $4370-$4371

Key resistance level: $4500

First support level: $4300

Strong support level: $4255

Even stronger support level: $4200

In short: The uptrend is confirmed, but a pullback is expected after short-term overbought conditions.

Even the most aggressive markets need a breather after a 7% weekly gain.

Gold price upside may be limited due to the potential threat posed by next Tuesday's CPI data – "Inflation remains a fundamental issue." A break above $4500 requires support from both fundamental demand and investor interest.

Trading Strategy Reference: The trend is upward, but avoid chasing highs before the CPI data release.

After rising nearly $300 in a week, a technical pullback is expected, with the CPI data being the biggest short-term uncertainty.

Wait for confirmation of the pullback before entering the market.

Strategy: Buy on dips (follow the trend). The overall trend is bullish; prioritize waiting for prices to fall back to support levels and stabilize.

Ideal Entry Range: If gold prices fall back to around $4300 and stabilize (support/resistance level), consider establishing a small long position.

Other Add-on Strategies: If the pullback intensifies to around $4255 and bottoming signals appear, consider adding to the position.

First target: $4370-$4400 (close to Friday's high and psychologically significant)

Second target (optimistic expectation): $4500 if CPI data is positive.

Stop-loss reference: Below $4200 (a break below this level would invalidate the bullish structure).

From $4000 to $4340, some are counting their money, while others are crying.

The last time gold prices bottomed out and rebounded, falling to around $4000, how many people shouted "Gold is finished"?

Now, gold prices have risen to $4340. Those short sellers who stopped their losses must be regretting it now!

84% of Wall Street analysts are collectively bullish on gold prices—we haven't seen such a high level of consensus in the past year.

But it is precisely at times like these that we need to remain calm. Even the strongest bull market needs a breather after a weekly gain of 7%. Tuesday's CPI data will be a "mirror"—if inflation cools, gold prices could reach $4,500; if inflation remains high, this rapid rise will inevitably give back some of its gains.

Tomorrow's strategy can be summarized in eight words: buy on dips, don't chase the rally, don't be afraid.

$4,300 is the first line of defense, and $4,255 is the second. Take action when gold prices reach these levels; otherwise, wait patiently. Before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is released, anyone confidently predicting that gold prices "will definitely rise" is a fortune teller, not a trader. Next week, patience will be the most important asset.