**Bullish Support Rationale**

(Holding a slight intraday advantage; establishing a base for an upward-trending oscillation)

⛽ **1. Plunging oil prices alleviate inflation concerns; expectations for Fed tightening cool slightly**

Previously, the primary bearish factor for gold was the Middle East crisis driving up oil prices and forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates. Now, with crude oil prices pulling back sharply, the market is pricing in a disinflationary outlook; falling real interest rates directly benefit non-yielding gold, opening up room for a short-term recovery.

💲 **2. The $4,000 level forms a solid interim floor; strong buying support upon pullbacks**

After three weeks of repeated testing by bulls and bears, the $4,000 level has become a convergence point for three types of buying—central bank purchases, ETF allocations, and safe-haven "dip-buying"—marking the bottoming-out zone following the recent decline. Even if safe-haven sentiment subsides today, the potential for a deep drop remains capped, with short-term buyers stepping in on every pullback.

🌍 **3. Short-term technical pullbacks represent a consolidation phase (filling the gap from the high opening); the rebound structure remains intact**

Last Friday’s pullback was merely profit-taking after a surge, and the daily chart still closed above the 20-day moving average. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD green bars are shrinking, indicating that bearish momentum is gradually exhausting itself; the hourly chart is stabilizing around the support of the 4,055 gap. As long as the 4,050 level holds, the short-term rebound structure remains intact.

🚢 **4. Weakening US economic data boosts gold’s appeal as a store of value amidst recession expectations**

US annualized GDP growth for the second quarter was only 1.5%, with forward-looking data on consumption, manufacturing, and employment showing a gradual slowdown; the market is already pricing in a mild recession. Gold offers dual value-preservation attributes—inflation hedging and safe-haven status—prompting a shift of capital into precious metals to hedge against downside risks.