Black Stone Minerals, L.P. ||
MARKET-BEATING SCORE = 7/10
Dividend yield TTM
8.03%

"an exploration company, which engages in the exploration of oil and natural gas minerals. "

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PEGY 0.43 — undervalued vs growth. Strong market beater.
EPS growth 18.8% — solid.
Revenue declining 6.1% YoY.
Gross margin 88.3% — strong moat.
FCF margin 46.9% — real cash generation.
D/E 0.24 — conservative leverage.
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KEY RISK ASSESSMENT

"Could a policy change or major competitor disrupt growth in the next 2 years?"

Policy changes regarding hydraulic fracturing or stricter environmental regulations pose a moderate risk as they could slow the drilling activities of operators on BSM’s acreage. While BSM’s ownership of existing mineral rights protects it from direct competition, a competitive market for new acquisitions could inflate prices and limit expansion opportunities. Short-term growth is primarily vulnerable to supply chain constraints or labor shortages affecting the oilfield services sector rather than immediate technological displacement. Overall, BSM's passive royalty model mitigates direct operational risk but remains sensitive to federal energy policies impacting production volumes.

Risk Level:
Moderate
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POSITIVE CATALYST OUTLOOK

"Could a policy change or competitor headwinds create a positive catalyst in the next 2 years?"

Black Stone Minerals is positioned to benefit from the expansion of U.S. LNG export capacity, which acts as a major macro tailwind for its extensive natural gas acreage in the Haynesville Shale. As a royalty-only business, BSM maintains a distinct advantage over competitors by avoiding inflationary capital and operating costs that currently impact traditional E&P margins. Additionally, potential regulatory restrictions on federal land leasing would likely redirect drilling activity toward the private mineral interests that dominate BSM’s portfolio, creating a favorable shift in market share.

Positive Outlook:
Moderate
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.

Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)


** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution. **A single candle is a range on a lower timeframe. *Find the range and define its, creation dates, prices, and risk parameters. A range is broken down into 4 candle, which create 6 levels that define the range and illustrate market structure.
Focus only on the first and last candle of each range. The last candle of each type of range has two levels - see FS & Inv. FS Candles below.

DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED:
When price is above a distribution range, these candles/levels act as support.

(BS) BACKSIDE Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level. high angle accumulation trends, f.v,g's

(FS) FrontSide Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a low angle accumulation trend. The top of Distribution candles are used as support. The bottom of the FrontSide candle is the SwingLow of the range. The FS candle wants to protect the SwingLow. When/if Price Action closes below the SwingLow, the level is invalidated. Find another range to trade.

ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED: When price is below an accumulation range, these candles/levels act as resistance.

INVERSE BACKSIDE (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level. Creates high angle distribution trends, f.v.g, protects the Inv.FS candle

INVERSE FRONTSIDE (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a low angle distribution trend. The bottom of Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
The top of the Inv.FrontSide candle is the SwingHigh of the range. The Inv.FS candle wants to protect the SwingHigh. When/if Price Action closes above the SwingHigh, the level is invalidated. Find another range to trade.