Brent Oil rose about 34% in a month as tensions escalate.

What's the next move?

The weekly low and high are 84 and 94 respectively. The critical data point here is the 84 level, which contains confluence, because it is also the SMA50. As long as it stays above this level, we can expect the price's upward move to continue. Equilibrium, meaning the fair value level, is 90. This is the most important support to watch on any potential pullback.

In a scenario where geopolitical tensions persist, the 100 and 109 levels could be tested in turn.

However, this could trigger inflationary pressure that pushes the Fed, and central banks in general, to continue with high rates. At the end of the day, higher oil prices could create selling pressure on risk-on instruments, since they support higher rates.

This entire process could also deepen the real erosion in household pockets.