(August 3) Bearish Outlook for Gold Remains for Monday

Based on the latest 2-hour chart, gold closed at $4,083.82 last Friday. Throughout the week, it traded within the $3,995–$4,120 range, exhibiting a pattern of consolidation and fluctuation at high levels.

The $4,000 psychological level is attracting strong buying support.

Currently, the price is trading below short-term moving averages, and the strength of any rebound appears significantly limited.
Although the price briefly rose above $4,104 last Thursday, it failed to sustain those gains;
it fell back to close near $4,083 on Friday, signaling a lack of confidence among the bulls
and indicating that selling pressure remains heavy overhead.


Bullish Factors:
Persistent tensions in the Middle East and escalating conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, combined with high energy prices fueling inflation concerns, are providing safe-haven support for gold.
Additionally, the long-term trend of global central banks increasing their gold holdings remains intact, offering structural buying support at the $4,000 level.

Bearish Factors:
While the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, three officials voted in favor of a rate hike,
revealing clear internal disagreement.
Chair Warsh maintains a hawkish stance, emphasizing the goal of keeping inflation at 2%,
and market bets on a September rate hike remain above 60%.
The US Dollar Index has stabilized and rebounded, while US Treasury yields remain high,
continuing to weigh on the performance of non-yielding assets like gold.

Key Variables:
"Super Week" for Non-Farm Payrolls
Data releases this week include the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, ADP employment figures on Wednesday, and the July Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.
These figures will directly influence market expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate path for September
and serve as critical catalysts determining whether gold prices can break out of their current range-bound trading pattern. Upside Resistance:
4100–4120 (key short-term resistance zone);
If broken, look to 4157–4185.
Downside Support: 4040–4050 (current price area);
4000–4020 (core support zone);
If breached, look to 3970–3935.

We secured a total profit of nearly 100 points this week, exceeding $9,000 in profit per lot;
All trading data and rationales are presented authentically for your reference.
Congratulations to everyone following me.

Monday Strategy Reference:
Short Selling:
If the gold price rebounds to the 4090–4100 range (resistance near last Thursday's high),
consider a light short position.
Stop-loss reference: Above 4120 (a breakout would shift the market structure).
Downside targets: 4040–4050; if breached, look to 4000–4010.

Long Positions:
If the gold price pulls back to the 4000–4020 zone and shows clear signs of stabilizing,
consider playing for a short-term rebound.
Stop-loss reference: Below 3980.
Upside targets: 4060–4080 (quick in-and-out trades).

Core Strategy Summary:
Sell high in the 4060–4100 range,
Buy low in the 4000–4020 range,
Wait for Wednesday's ADP and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data to break the deadlock.
Trade with light positions and strict stop-losses.