AUDJPY Monthly Chart Analysis – Full Shavyfxhub Strategy
1. Chart Structure (Monthly)
Major Historical Supply Roof (1981 SSL): 276.248
Current Major Supply Roof / SSL: 124.190
Key Intermediate Levels: 110.841 – 108.117
Important Demand Floors:
86.278
78.163 (Neckline of Inverted Head & Shoulders)
56.177 – 55.316 (major long-term demand)
Clear Ascending Trendline supporting the multi-year recovery.
Descending trendline from the 2008 high has been broken.
Multiple SS (Strength of Structure), RT/RS, and BAR (Break and Retest) points are clearly marked.
Price is currently trading near the upper structure with room toward the 124 Supply Roof.
Current Bias: Long-term structure is constructive above the ascending trendline and the 86–78 demand zone. A sustained break above 110–124 would open the path for a larger expansion.
2. Course of Major Drops (Especially 2008–2009)
Period,What Happened,Price Action,Main Drivers
2007–2008 Peak,High near 110–115 area,Formed major top,Strong risk-on + high carry
Sept–Oct 2008,Lehman collapse,Violent crash toward 55–60,Massive yen carry trade unwind
2008–2009 Bottom,Deep lows,Tested the 55–56 major demand zone,Extreme risk-off + AUD collapse
2020 COVID Crash,Sharp but shorter drop,Sold off then recovered quickly,Risk-off + commodity shock
AUDJPY is one of the most sensitive pairs to yen carry trade unwinds. When risk aversion spikes, traders close long AUD / short JPY positions, causing sharp drops. The 2008 crash was one of the most severe in the pair’s history.
3. Heads of the Central Banks
Central Bank,Governor
Reserve Bank of Australia,Michele Bullock
Bank of Japan,Kazuo Ueda
4. Interest Rates & Bond Yield Differential
,Current Level
RBA Cash Rate,4.35%
BoJ Policy Rate,1.00%
Interest Rate Differential,Australia higher by ~3.35%
Australia 10Y Yield,~4.94%
Japan 10Y Yield,~2.79% – 2.80%
Bond Yield Differential,Australia higher by ~2.15%
Carry Trade Status:
Strongly favors Long AUD / Short JPY. The interest rate and yield differentials remain significantly positive for the Australian dollar, supporting the carry trade (unlike the 2008 period when risk-off overpowered the differential).
5. Upcoming Policy Meetings
Central Bank,Next Meeting
RBA,11 August 2026
Bank of Japan,17–18 September 2026
Summary (Shavyfxhub View):
AUDJPY remains in a long-term ascending structure after recovering from the deep 2008–2009 and 2020 lows. The major Supply Roof at 124.190 is the key ceiling to watch. Fundamentally, the carry trade still strongly favors the Australian dollar due to the large interest rate and bond yield advantage over Japan. The biggest risk remains a sharp risk-off event or faster-than-expected BoJ tightening that could trigger another carry unwind, similar to 2008.
STRUCTURE NEVER LIES,HISTORY NEVER LIES