By analyzing the #AMZN (Amazon) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that the idea we published on 22 July has been completed in full — trigger, targets and catalyst. We said the ABC correction was finishing, named the High Value Area as the single level that would decide it, and listed exactly where price would go on the break. Price has since run +13.77% and taken every level we mapped. You can revisit the original breakdown here:

⏱️ 4H Timeframe
Here is the sequence, because the value was in the specificity, not the direction.

The broader trend was never in question — an uptrend riding inside its rising channel, holding comfortably above the Protected Low at $195.91. Inside that uptrend, price had gone through an internal correction: a bearish internal CHoCH, then several bearish BOS, dragging price down into the demand around the Order Block ($219.58 – $226.49). Buyers reclaimed control by breaking the internal Protected High at $249.51 with an impulsive wave, and price then unwound in a three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) correction.

We published with price at $242.89, compressing directly on the High Value Area of the volume profile — the heaviest-traded level on the chart. And we were explicit about the trigger: not a wick, not a touch — a clear candle close above the HVA, which would confirm buyers had absorbed the heaviest volume on the chart.

That close came, and what followed was not gradual. Price broke the HVA and expanded, clearing $249.75, then $253.45, and driving all the way through the buy-side liquidity at $278.82 — the final target on our list. The move measures +13.77% from the breakout level.

Price is now trading around $271.50, having pulled back beneath the BSL after tagging it. That reaction is normal and expected: liquidity was resting there, it has been taken, and the market is digesting. Below, the $253.45 and $249.75 shelf and the broken Protected High at $249.51 now form the first support band — the level that flipped is the level that should hold.

🎯 The Bias
Scenario A — continuation (base case). The structural picture stays constructive. The trend is up, price is inside its rising channel, the correction resolved exactly as mapped, and the level that gave way at $249.51 has flipped from resistance to support. My expectation is that this pullback rebalances and buyers defend the $249.51 – $253.45 band, from which the trend can continue toward the upper boundary of the rising channel. The cleaner entry, in my view, is a reaction from that band on a retest — not a chase back into the highs after a 13.77% run.

Scenario B — deeper correction. I have to respect that the liquidity target is done. When the final mapped objective gets tagged, the easy part of the move is over, and a deeper unwind becomes more likely than it was a month ago. If price loses the $249.51 band on a decisive close, the next demand is the Order Block at $219.58 – $226.49, which would be a healthy reset rather than a break. Structurally, the uptrend only fails on a break of the Protected Low at $195.91, with the Breaker Block at $188.71 – $198.99 beneath it as the last defence.

The rule that carried this entire idea still applies: a break is a candle close, not a wick. It was the close above the HVA that produced 13.77% — not the first touch of it. The same discipline applies on the way down.

📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The catalyst we flagged did not just arrive on schedule — it was the engine of the entire move, and it is worth reporting precisely.

Amazon reported Q2 on 30 July, and the print was strong where it mattered. Revenue came in at $200.6bn, up 20% year-on-year, against a Street estimate near $196.2bn and the company's own $194–199bn guide. Operating income climbed 43% to $27.5bn. The headline, though, was AWS: revenue of $42.2bn, up 36.7% year-on-year — its fastest pace in 18 quarters — with AWS operating income rising to $16.6bn from $10.2bn a year earlier, at a 39.4% margin. Shares jumped roughly 9% after hours on the release. That gap is the impulsive candle on this chart.

Now the caveats, because the headline EPS number deserves context. Reported earnings of $5.75 per share against a consensus near $1.81 look extraordinary, but that figure was inflated substantially by a one-off gain on Amazon's stake in Anthropic — it is not a clean read on operating earnings power, and anyone quoting the beat without that context is misreading the quarter.

Two genuine concerns also came out of the print. First, 2026 capital spending guidance was lifted to roughly $220bn, overwhelmingly for AI and cloud infrastructure. We flagged the capex risk in the original idea when it was tracking near $200bn with the possibility of rising toward $210bn — it came in higher than even that. That is a very large bill, and it will keep pressure on free cash flow. Second, Q3 revenue guidance of $197–202bn came in beneath analyst expectations near $204.1bn — a softer forward number that sits awkwardly against the celebration.

Net-net: the operating business, and AWS in particular, is accelerating in a way that justifies the structural move. But the quality of the EPS beat and the size of the spending commitment are the two things that could cap how far this leg extends — which is precisely why I want a retest and a defended level rather than a chase here.

This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Amazon heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳