Copper prices surged to a record high, supported by tightening global supply and resilient demand.

The DR Congo imposed an immediate ban on copper concentrate exports, while production disruptions at Codelco's El Teniente mine added to supply concerns.

At the same time, declining inventories in China and strong US buying reinforced bullish sentiment.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for copper, with tightening supply and firm demand likely to keep prices elevated in the near term.

From a technical perspective, XCUUSD extended its rally, forming higher swings after rebounding above the support zone on the weekly timeframe. The recent rally has pushed prices towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

The broader technical structure remains constructive. Price continues to print higher highs and higher lows while holding comfortably above the rising long-term trendline, suggesting the primary trend remains firmly bullish.

As long as copper remains above the support zone at 6.13479, the bullish structure would stay intact. A successful retest of this zone could attract fresh buying interest and pave the way for another attempt towards 7.0000, with a sustained break above this resistance exposing the record high around 7.5000.

However, momentum is beginning to show early signs of moderation. While the MACD remains in positive territory, the histogram has started to flatten, suggesting bullish momentum may be slowing after the recent advance. This does not necessarily signal a reversal but raises the possibility of a short-term consolidation or pullback before the broader uptrend resumes.

A deeper correction below 6.13479 would shift attention towards the next key support around 5.29207, where buyers may look to defend the longer-term bullish trend.

Overall, the technical outlook remains bullish, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The longer-term backdrop also continues to favour copper as structural supply constraints and growing demand from AI infrastructure, electrification and renewable energy investment underpin the metal's fundamental outlook.

By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness