Happy August everyone,
Summer is here, unfortunately its been a terrible one for our European friends :S.

Looking at QQQ for next week, since this is a major week for tech earnings. We have some big earning names for tech, specifically:

• AMD reporting after hours on Tuesday
  
• SNDK WDC and APP reporting after hours on Wednesday
  

Some other ones but ones that don't directly impact QQQ. Others that I am watching personally are DIS AXON and $OKLO.

So what are expectations?
QQQ has pulled back around 10.5% thus far. Consulting my LLM on the current state of Analyst opinions, which I always take with a grain of salt but like seeing the general theme touted by these big firms, is this:

The analyst community is currently split into two main camps, though both remain generally optimistic about the long-term trajectory:

1. The "Buy the Dip" Camp (Goldman Sachs & Zacks)
John Flood at Goldman Sachs remains firmly in the "buy the dip" mode. He views the recent volatility not as a trend reversal, but as a result of massive capital reallocation. He points out that despite record-breaking trading volumes (34 billion shares in a single day recently), the market is absorbing new supply—like the $140 billion in recent IPOs—remarkably well. His team believes that as long as earnings continue to deliver, the logic for the S&P 500 (ES1!) to challenge the 8,000 level remains intact.

2. The "Rotation & Risk" Camp (Yardeni & Pluang)
Yardeni QuickTakes and Pluang are a bit more cautious regarding the "hyperscalers." The concern is that analysts may have set the bar too high, entering the realm of "irrational exuberance." They warn that if these tech giants don't beat these "heady" expectations, we could see a deeper correction in the Nasdaq-100 (NQ1!). However, they expect this to manifest as a sector rotation—where money moves out of overextended semiconductors and into undervalued software, financials, or industrials—rather than a total market collapse.

In my last SPY Idea I shared the annual path, where FOMC was the last day of a stark decline prior to turning back up. This actually played out pretty perfectly, but unfortunately there is one more decline to be head (albeit not as steep) prior to grinding back up. Which technically falls into next week.

QQQ is poised to make a retracement to 697 by Thursday.
The bigger question is the magnitude of upside vs downside next week with such major catalysts.

To answer this question, we should look to the earnings likely to impact QQQ the most, those being SNDK, WDC, APP and likely PLTR (releasing Monday after hours).

Thankfully, I have an earnings assessment function that can help give us some guidance on expectations.

PLTR

Assessment: Bullish the day after release with a 68% probability and beating the naive baseline by 20% (naive baseline = guessing on a coin flip).

My AI's position:

Palantir is no longer being viewed by Wall Street as just a software company; it is increasingly treated as a foundational AI infrastructure provider. They are scheduled to report on August 3, 2026, and the momentum heading into this release is significant.

Earnings Expectations: Analysts are looking for an EPS of $0.35, which represents a staggering 118.8% increase over the $0.16 reported in the same quarter last year.
Revenue Forecast: Consensus sits at $1.81 billion, an 81% year-over-year surge.
Analyst Sentiment: The sentiment is overwhelmingly positive. Over the last 60 days, there have been 11 upward earnings revisions and zero downward revisions. Most analysts (33 in total) maintain a "Buy" trend, with Palantir currently holding a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Key Metrics to Watch: Keep a close eye on their Rule of 40 score, which recently hit an extraordinary 145%. Analysts are also focused on the U.S. commercial revenue, which has been growing at triple digits as enterprises move from AI experimentation to full-scale production.
Market Note: While retail sentiment on Stocktwits has flipped to "extremely bullish," note that Michael Burry recently disclosed a fresh short position, citing stretched tech valuations. However, the "buy the dip" mentality remains strong among the retail base.

AMD

This one is a bit of a wild card:

Assessment: Results are conflicting, one model which beats baseline by 12.5% assigns a bullish probability of 50%. The other, with the same baseline beat rate, sasigns a bullish probability of 93.2%, both indicating that the bullishness is likely to fade in either case after the initial release date, which is evidently slightly a concern.

Magnitude: A modest +/- 4%, however hte magnitude are always under-estimates usually. An interesting tidbit is that AMD's EPS estimate is beyond their historic estimates, meaning they are pricing in an earnings growth that they have never seen before.

My AI's position based on analyst ratings:

Here is the quantitative breakdown and sentiment analysis based on the latest intelligence for August 2026.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
Earnings Date: August 4, 2026
Q2 2026 Expectations:

Revenue Forecast: ~$11.28 billion to $11.3 billion (representing ~47% YoY growth).
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts are targeting $1.55 (a massive jump from $0.48 in the prior year).
Key Growth Driver: The Data Center segment remains the primary engine, having surged 57% to $5.8 billion in Q1. Investors are laser-focused on the ramp-up of the MI450 Series AI GPUs and the Helios rack-scale platforms.

AMD is currently in a "show me" phase. While the stock has seen a spectacular 130% rise year-to-date, it is trading at a premium valuation of approximately 75x forward earnings for 2026. To maintain this momentum, AMD likely needs to not only beat these estimates but also raise its full-year guidance. While some technical analysts warn of a potential correction toward $300 if momentum stalls, the fundamental "Wall Street" consensus remains highly optimistic, with price targets ranging from $500 to as high as $665 from firms like Barclays and Mizuho.

SNDK

Earning history is too short for full baseline assessment, but the assigned outcome is Bearish by 50%, this is equivalent to a coin flip however, so take this with a grain of salt.

Magnitude: Too short history. Their EPS estimate is also beyond anything they have reported before which was the case with their last earnings. Their last earnings rallied, putting this regime at 100% bullish; albeit with an n = 1 (so 1 case lmfao, highly ungeneralizable so don't trust this).

My ai's position based on analyst insights:

Earnings Date: August 5, 2026
Q4 2026 Expectations:

Revenue Forecast: Management guidance sits between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $33.28, while management’s internal forecast is $30 to $33. This represents a staggering year-over-year surge compared to the $0.29 reported in the same quarter last year.
Valuation: Following a recent 45% pullback from its highs, SNDK is trading at a remarkably low 5.9x forward earnings.

SNDK presents a compelling "value-growth" opportunity. The market appears to have over-corrected on concerns regarding NAND pricing, overlooking the $42 billion in minimum revenue commitments SNDK has secured through its new long-term supply agreements. With an Earnings ESP of +4.13%, the data suggests a high probability of an earnings beat. This report could be the catalyst needed to bridge the gap between its current "discounted" share price and its robust fundamental growth.

WDC
Assessment: Bullish with 52.5% probability, being faded after initial day of release flipping bearish.

Magnitude: Modest return with 58% of their EPS estimates in their current range being a bullish outcome.

My ai's position based on Analyst insights:

The consensus for the quarter ending June 2026 reflects a massive growth trajectory:

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts are looking for $3.35, which represents a staggering 101.8% increase year-over-year.
Revenue: Expected to hit $3.7 billion, up 42.2% from the same period last year.
Management Guidance: WDC’s own guidance for this quarter was slightly more conservative, ranging between $3.10 and $3.40, suggesting that analysts are leaning toward the top end of the company's expectations.
Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
The mood on the Street is decidedly optimistic, with several major firms recently aggressive in their upward revisions:

JPMorgan & Morgan Stanley: Both firms recently hiked their price targets to $650, maintaining "Overweight" ratings. Morgan Stanley has even named WDC one of its “most-favored” picks, citing a structural supply deficit in the hard disk drive (HDD) market.

Top-Tier Targets: We are seeing some very bold calls, including Cantor Fitzgerald at $900 and BofA Securities at $732.

The "AI Supercycle" Narrative: Analysts are no longer viewing WDC as a purely cyclical play.

The consensus is that AI-driven demand for high-capacity storage is creating a "more permanent" re-rating of the stock.

APP
Unfortunately can't comment about this as the model fails to beat the baseline naive rate, so giving you the data is worse than taking a guess lol.

MY AI's position:

AppLovin has been one of the standout performers in the mobile tech space, and they are expected to report their results on August 5, 2026. After "crushing" their previous Q4 results, the bar has been set even higher for this quarter.

Earnings Expectations: The market expects an EPS of $3.72, a massive 64.6% increase year-over-year.
Revenue Forecast: Analysts are targeting $1.94 billion, up 54% from the year-ago quarter.
Analyst Sentiment: Out of 32 analysts, the majority support a "Buy" trend. While the consensus EPS estimate was nudged slightly lower (0.18%) in the last 30 days, this is viewed more as a minor recalibration than a shift in the bullish thesis.
Retail Perspective: Retail investors have been aggressively loading up on any price dips, with some Stocktwits users setting price targets in the high-$500 range. The sentiment remains bullish as the company continues to outpace the revenue growth of much larger tech peers.
Operational Context: The recent retraction of fraud allegations by CapitalWatch has removed a significant cloud of uncertainty, allowing the market to focus purely on APP's fundamental growth and its AI-driven advertising efficiency.

So where does this leave QQQ?

Volatile as usual. Expectations based on earnings and QQQ's own forecast is mostly whipsaw with a bullish tilt. The immediate target to watch is that 697 upside target, with a good chance of seeing some downside before or after this target is reached. But it should be reached by Thursday.

The ranges are posted in the chart for the week. We start a new month into Monday which presents new ranges and high probability targets. But as of now, this is my outlook for QQQ.

Overall verdict: Bullish till min 697.
Trend probability: Very low, most likely a lot of rip fading, dip buying leading to whipsaw and most moves occuring after hours.

Good luck and safe trades everyone!