LIT reclaimed the 0.5 of the recent leg and is holding above it. Watching the imbalance below for the retrace entry.

Entry: ~$2.14
Stop: below $2.08
Target: $3.00+

Roughly 10R+ if it plays out.

━━ WHY ━━

Robinhood's perpetuals run on Lighter's engine inside Robinhood Wallet. Revenue splits 50/50, and since the June 30 tokenomics change Lighter's half buys LIT on the open market and burns it permanently. First burn removed 15.64M LIT on July 10 — about 6.3% of circulating supply.

Only ~25% of total supply is unlocked. Burn currently runs ~30.6M LIT/year against that float.

━━ THE CLOCK ━━

Insider tokens (50% of supply) come off cliff December 27, then vest linearly over three years

roughly 167M/year against a 30.6M/year burn. Unlock outruns burn about 5:1 from that date.

The window is the next four months, not the year.

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Educational content. Not financial advice. Trading derivatives carries substantial risk of loss.

Buying the burn, or waiting for the December cliff?