Today’s SPCX unlock is one of the most anticipated events of the quarter. Almost everyone expects increased selling pressure—but when expectations become consensus, the market often reacts differently.

SpaceX’s latest results remain impressive: 92% YoY revenue growth, 191% EBITDA growth, and Starlink exceeding 12M subscribers, putting the company on track for a $100B annualized revenue run rate. Yet the market has focused on aggressive AI investment, with capital expenditure reaching 235% of revenue, weighing on sentiment despite strong fundamentals.

Today’s unlock adds another layer of uncertainty. With 911.5M SPCX becoming eligible to trade, potential supply could equal 1.5–3x the current float, while short interest already stands around 30–35%. That combination is likely to produce sharp volatility rather than a one-way move.

My Trading Plan

I’m not interested in guessing the bottom—I want confirmation.

The first area I’m watching is $104.5–106. If price sweeps this support and quickly reclaims it with a hammer candle or a long lower wick on expanding volume, I’ll consider a tactical long.

Entry: $104.5–106 after bullish confirmation
Stop: Below $100
TP1: $112–114
TP2: $118–122

The second key level is $112.

If SPCX successfully reclaims and holds above this level after the unlock, it would suggest that the market has absorbed the additional supply. That’s where I’d feel more comfortable adding to a longer-term position rather than simply trading the initial volatility.

My preference is to split the trade into two stages: first react to the price action with short-term exposure, then gradually build a longer-term position once the market confirms that selling pressure has faded. Holding a tokenized version of the asset after confirmation also provides more flexibility than treating the entire trade as a pure momentum play.

The unlock itself isn’t the opportunity—the reaction is. If buyers absorb the supply and reclaim key resistance, today’s fear could become tomorrow’s catalyst.