After a significant correction from its all-time high, ACWA Power appears to be entering a base-building phase rather than continuing its previous downtrend.

Fundamental View

The latest financial results continue to reflect a company investing for long-term growth rather than maximizing short-term earnings.

Key observations:

* Book Value Per Share continues to improve, indicating stronger shareholders’ equity.
* EBITDA remains resilient despite the recent moderation in profitability.
* The company continues expanding its global project pipeline across renewable energy, water desalination, and green hydrogen.
* Several major projects have already entered commercial operation, while others are expected to contribute gradually over the coming years.
* Although ROE and ROA have softened, this is largely consistent with a capital-intensive growth strategy.

In my opinion, the market is currently pricing near-term earnings more heavily than the long-term cash flow potential of these projects.

My estimated fair value remains around SAR 220–250, assuming project execution continues as planned.

Technical View

Technically, the stock has stabilized after a prolonged decline and is now attempting to establish a higher base.

* Buyers defended the recent lows successfully.
* Trading volume increased during the rebound, suggesting renewed institutional interest.
* Momentum indicators have started to improve, although confirmation is still required.

Important levels:

* Building Zone: SAR 193–180
* Strong Demand Zone: SAR 180–164
* Major Resistance: SAR 212–215

A confirmed breakout above the resistance zone could open the door toward the SAR 220–250 target range.

Conclusion

As long as the company’s fundamentals remain intact and project execution continues, I believe the recent correction has significantly improved the long-term risk/reward profile.