“To do: Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5–10 bil.”

This message appeared on a notepad conveniently staged by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

The to-do list appears to be another attempt to scare yen sellers away before Japan must sell US treasuries to fund yen purchases.

Japan holds more than US$1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making it the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt. Selling those holdings to fund yen purchases could push U.S. bond yields even higher (something no Treasury Secretary wants if they can help it).

Coordinated intervention by the U.S. could therefore help support the yen while reducing the need for Japan to sell Treasuries.

USDJPY has carried intervention risk for some time, but perhaps now more than ever. That can create sharp swings that some traders may view as an opportunity, while others may see the pair as simply too risky.