My original plan looked simple: short ETH at 1,870 from the descending channel, target 1,795, and stop at 1,895. Market structure revealed a contradiction beneath that simplicity, and I reconstructed the trade around stronger levels.

The Short Started in Support

I kept a conditional short bias because the 4h trend was down and the latest high at 1,898.50 stayed below 1,936.57. But 1,870 sat beside the 14-day POC at 1,868.22, 15m VWAP at 1,870.96, and 1h support at 1,870.26 while the 1h and 15m trends were up.

Premium Improved the Entry

I chose 1,889.74, the lower boundary of fresh 15m bearish supply at 1,889.74-1,897.10. It also sits above 1h resistance at 1,875.98-1,885 and beyond the 1,885.35-1,887.57 bearish FVG, so I accept risk only after a deeper retracement.

Demand Capped the Target

I raised my target from 1,795 to 1,855.82, the upper boundary of 4h and 1h support at 1,846.17-1,855.82. That exit is 1.32 above the 14-day VAL at 1,854.50 and ahead of the 1,848.73-1,851.58 bullish order block.

Supply Defined Invalidation

I placed my stop at 1,904, which is 0.10 above the 1,901.34-1,903.90 bearish order block and above 4h resistance at 1,898.50. The original 1,895 stop sat inside fresh supply, where a normal liquidity probe could remove the position without invalidating the thesis.

Less Ratio, Stronger Structure

The rebuild changes my R from 1:3 to 1:2.38. With 14.26 risk and 33.92 reward, I trade some headline ratio for a target before major demand and a stop beyond the rejection thesis, making the setup more structurally defensible.