Fundamental Analysis
Gold surged to a seven-week high after July U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, sharply reducing expectations for a September Fed rate hike. The weaker jobs data pressured the USD and Treasury yields, supporting gold, although persistent inflation risks may keep the Fed outlook uncertain and leave room for corrective volatility.

Technical Analysis
On the 4H chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,341 after reaching 4,371.84 and sweeping the marked buy-side liquidity. The broader structure has turned bullish after price broke the long-term descending trendline, but the latest expansion is stretched. The preferred plan is therefore to wait for a deeper retracement into 4,140–4,180, where the Fibonacci 0.618 level and the marked institutional value zone converge. If buyers defend this area, price could recover through 4,228 and 4,283 before challenging 4,371 again.

Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,341.94
Main buy zone: 4,140–4,180
Short-term support: 4,228–4,283
Short-term resistance: 4,360–4,372
Liquidity area: 4,360–4,372
Main target: 4,371–4,380
Invalidation: below 4,076

Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,140–4,180
Stop Loss: 4,070
Take Profit 1: 4,228
Take Profit 2: 4,283
Take Profit 3: 4,371–4,380

Buy Condition
Wait for price to retrace into the main buy zone and show clear bullish confirmation. A liquidity sweep, long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, failed breakdown, or 4H reclaim above 4,180 may confirm renewed buyer pressure. If price breaks and holds below the 4,076 Fibonacci level, the pullback setup is no longer valid.

Overall View
The H4 structure remains bullish after the major trendline breakout, but price has already swept buy-side liquidity near 4,372 after an aggressive expansion. Chasing above 4,300 may offer limited value. The preferred plan is to wait for a deeper correction into 4,140–4,180 and look for confirmation before targeting 4,228, 4,283, and eventually a retest of the recent high.

Do you expect gold to retrace into the 4,140–4,180 value zone before the next bullish expansion?