This analysis is based on market structure, liquidity, and supply & demand concepts. Gold has delivered a strong impulsive rally after breaking out of the falling wedge structure. However, price is now approaching a major higher-timeframe supply zone that aligns with a significant liquidity pool (L-SWEEP), where institutional sellers may become active.

At this stage, I am not chasing the bullish move. Instead, I am preparing for a potential bearish reversal if price confirms weakness inside the marked supply zone.

Market Bias

The market is beginning to bend toward the downside.

Although momentum remains bullish in the short term, price is entering a premium area where previous selling pressure originated. This is often where smart money looks to take liquidity before driving the market lower.

Key Confluences
Higher Timeframe (4H) Supply Zone.
Liquidity Sweep (L-SWEEP) above previous highs.
Strong impulsive rally into resistance.
Premium pricing after an extended bullish move.
Potential exhaustion as price reaches institutional selling levels.
What I'm Waiting For

I will only consider a short position if price produces a clear bearish confirmation inside the highlighted supply zone.

The confirmation can include:

Bearish Engulfing Candle
Evening Star Pattern
Strong Rejection Wick
Change of Character (CHOCH)
Break of Minor Market Structure (BOS)
Lower High Formation

Without confirmation, I will stay patient and avoid entering early.

Trading Plan

Scenario 1 – Bearish Confirmation (Preferred)

Price sweeps liquidity into the supply zone.
Sellers step in with a bearish confirmation pattern.
Enter short after confirmation.
Stop Loss above the liquidity sweep and supply zone.
Target previous demand zones and lower liquidity levels.

Scenario 2 – Bullish Continuation

If price closes decisively above the supply zone with strong momentum, the bearish setup becomes invalid.
I will wait for a new market structure before looking for another opportunity.
Risk Management

A supply zone is an area of interest—not a guaranteed reversal. Waiting for confirmation helps avoid low-probability trades and improves risk-to-reward opportunities. Always trade with proper position sizing and disciplined risk management.

Conclusion

Gold is approaching one of the most important resistance areas on the 4H timeframe. While the recent rally has been impressive, the market is starting to bend toward the downside as it reaches a higher-timeframe supply zone and liquidity target. If sellers confirm their presence with a bearish price action pattern, this area could provide an excellent high-probability short opportunity.