Direction: Long (bias) | Timeframe: 15m execution, 1H structure

NFP hits at 14:30 CET (08:30 ET). This is a plan published BEFORE the print, with entries, stops, targets and invalidation defined in advance. If it's wrong, you'll see exactly where it was wrong.

THE SETUP

NAS100 has spent two full sessions compressed in a box: 29,300 – 29,560. Above us: the Aug 5 rejection high at 29,800 and the major level at 30,304. Below: the Aug 6 spike low at 29,250, then 29,100, then the daily shelf at 28,800. Session VWAP cluster and pre-NFP pivot: 29,512. NFP resolves this box. I don't guess the number — I trade the 15-minute close after it.

THE MACRO CONTEXT (why direction ≠ intuition today)

Consensus is ~80k (prior 57k), unemployment 4.2%, AHE 3.5% y/y. But forecaster dispersion is extreme — estimates run from ~18k (Vanguard, 401k data) to 157k. With the Fed openly discussing a September HIKE, the reaction function is inverted:

Hot print (>120k, AHE ≥0.4% m/m) → hike odds up → NAS100 down
Soft print (20–80k) → hike repricing fades → NAS100 up ← my base case
Collapse print (<40k with UR jump to 4.4%+) → ambiguous: initial rate-relief pop, possible growth-fear fade. Structure decides, not the headline.

My lean: labor market is cooling faster than consensus (June's 57k, entry-level hiring weakness). I expect a soft print and therefore favor the LONG scenario — but the plan trades the close, not my opinion.

SCENARIO A — LONG (primary)

Trigger: 15m candle CLOSES above 29,560 after the print. Not the spike — the close.

Entry: 29,560–29,580 (break-and-retest preferred; market on close if volume >2× average)
SL: 29,440 — below VWAP, back inside the box (~120 pts)
TP1: 29,800 — Aug 5 supply. Take 50%, SL to breakeven
TP2: 30,304 — major level (~6R on the runner)
INVALIDATION: Long is wrong if a 15m candle closes back below 29,512 after entry. Exit, no averaging, no re-entry chasing.

SCENARIO B — SHORT (hot print / failed breakout)

Trigger: spike above 29,560 fails and 15m closes back below 29,512, OR direct 15m close below 29,300.

Entry: ~29,500 (failed breakout) or retest of 29,300 from below (breakdown)
SL: above post-NFP spike high, max 29,620 (failed-breakout entry) / 29,420 (breakdown entry)
TP1: 29,250 — take 50%
TP2: 29,100; extension 28,800 only if AHE ≥0.4% m/m
INVALIDATION: Short is wrong on a 15m close back above 29,560.

RULES

Flat at 14:25 CET. No position into the print.
First 5–15 minutes = noise. The first spike routinely sweeps both directions. The tradeable signal is the direction of the first 15m CLOSE.
If BOTH box boundaries are swept within 30 minutes → NO TRADE. Stand down. A swept setup is a dead setup.
CFD spreads widen 3–5× at the print. Size off the SL distance, not habit.
If price refuses to follow the number (strong print, market won't sell) — that failure IS the information. Price structure overrides the headline.

HONEST CAVEAT

With an 18k–157k forecast range, nobody's number is worth much — including mine. That's why every scenario above has a stated invalidation price. If you follow anyone posting NFP "signals" without one, ask them where they're wrong. If they can't answer, you have your answer.

Not financial advice. Risk management is yours.