The Nasdaq 100 has staged an aggressive recovery from the late-July lows, erasing most of the recent decline in only a few sessions. The rebound has restored short-term bullish momentum, but it has also brought the index directly back into the area where previous rallies lost control.

The fundamental backdrop explains part of the move. Strong AI-related earnings and renewed demand for semiconductor stocks have pushed technology shares sharply higher, while easing oil prices and lower Treasury yields have improved broader risk sentiment. The Federal Reserve also kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, leaving investors focused on earnings and incoming economic data rather than an immediate policy shift.

Technically, however, the easy part of the rebound may already be over.

US100 is now testing the July highs around 29,600–29,850. This area rejected buyers twice before the late-month selloff, making it the first serious test for the current recovery. The speed of the advance is also important: price has moved almost vertically into resistance, leaving little consolidation beneath the highs.

That does not automatically make the setup bearish. Strong markets can remain overextended longer than expected. But buying directly into established resistance offers a less attractive risk-to-reward profile than waiting for the market to confirm its next move.

Bullish Scenario

A decisive break above 29,850, followed by acceptance above the former highs, would confirm that buyers have absorbed the remaining supply. That could open the way toward the psychological 30,000 level and potentially the 30,250–30,500 region.

The quality of the breakout matters more than the initial spike. A brief move above resistance followed by an immediate return below it would raise the risk of a false breakout.

Corrective Scenario

If buyers fail to establish control above the July highs, a pullback toward 28,900–29,100 would be a logical reset after the sharp advance. This area represents the base of the latest acceleration and could act as the first important support.

A deeper decline would bring 28,350–28,550 back into focus. Losing that region would weaken the recovery structure and suggest that the latest surge was primarily a relief rally rather than the beginning of a sustained breakout.

For now, the Nasdaq 100 is not trading in the middle of nowhere. It is testing the level that should reveal whether this rebound still has room to run.

Is this the beginning of a clean breakout, or has the Nasdaq recovered too far, too fast?