XAUUSD is trading around 4,342 after a strong H1 expansion above the previous supply structure. Price has entered the premium area, while the broader market structure remains firmly bullish.

The macro backdrop continues to support gold. U.S. July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23K versus +80K expected, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields lower while reducing expectations for a September Fed hike. China’s central bank also added nearly 20 tonnes of gold in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023.

Technical View

Gold has cleared the previous 4,200 institutional supply and accelerated into the 4,330–4,375 premium area. The bullish structure remains intact, but price is now extended and chasing the breakout offers poor positioning.

The cleanest demand sits at 4,200–4,225. This zone marks the origin of the latest expansion and is the main area for a potential higher-low formation.

A deeper correction could reach the unmitigated H1 FVG around 4,160–4,180 without immediately damaging the broader bullish structure.

If buyers defend primary demand, the next expansion could revisit 4,290–4,310 before attacking the premium highs and the major liquidity objective around 4,395–4,410.

Key Zones

Current price: 4,341.935

Premium area: 4,330–4,375

Primary demand: 4,200–4,225

Unmitigated H1 FVG: 4,160–4,180

Secondary demand: 4,090–4,115

First liquidity objective: 4,290–4,310

Major liquidity objective: 4,395–4,410

Bullish invalidation: below 4,155

Trading Plan

Buy Priority: 4,200–4,225

Condition: wait for an H1 pullback into primary demand, followed by bullish rejection, liquidity-sweep reclaim or higher-low confirmation.

SL: below 4,155

TP1: 4,290–4,310

TP2: 4,350–4,375

TP3: 4,395–4,410

Important Note

Gold is already trading in premium territory after an aggressive expansion. Avoid chasing above 4,340.

A deeper pullback into 4,160–4,180 would still fit the bullish structure if buyers reclaim the H1 FVG. Acceptance below 4,155 would weaken the immediate continuation setup.

Final View

The H1 structure remains bullish, but the cleaner opportunity is a controlled pullback rather than buying premium. The preferred setup is a confirmed reaction from 4,200–4,225 before targeting 4,300, 4,375 and the major liquidity objective near 4,400.

Will gold retrace into primary demand before the next expansion toward 4,400?