Tuesday (August 4): International gold opened with a slightly weak tone, facing resistance from the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages. Additionally, the US Dollar Index rebounded from lows to close higher yesterday, showing a tendency for a short-term rally that limits upside potential for gold. In the short term, gold prices remain at risk of range-bound volatility and consolidation.

Key data releases to watch today include the US June trade balance, JOLTs job openings, and factory orders. Market expectations lean towards factors bearish for gold, suggesting a trading strategy that prioritizes going long initially followed by going short. Fundamentally, gold prices are fluctuating due to uncertainties regarding Middle East conflicts, concerns over rising inflation, and the market awaiting this week's US employment data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction.

Consequently, the market is likely to remain cautious and range-bound until news regarding the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data emerges. Although there was a brief rally during early trading on the hourly chart, the overall structure remains within a sideways consolidation zone; thus, the prevailing outlook is for sideways movement with a bearish bias. Watch for resistance in the 4070–4080 range and support in the 4030–4020 range. For now, expect oscillation within this narrow band; a breakout could see the price test resistance at 4100 or support at the 4000 psychological level.

Trading strategy: Consider light short positions if the price faces resistance in the 4080–4070 range; consider light long positions if the price stabilizes upon a first pullback to the 4030–4020 zone.