FTSE Fluctuates, Potential for Rebound
The benchmark FTSE 100
FTSE
index fluctuated, tending to remain range-bound, with potential market gains hampered by heavy losses in shares of pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca and energy companies.
Smart money in London responded mechanically to US President Donald Trump's announcement regarding the resumption of direct negotiations with Iran today.
✅ Easing BoE Rate Hike Speculation Boosts Property Stocks
- Loan Rate Relief: Falling crude oil prices automatically lowered secondary inflation expectations in the UK, forcing financial markets to cut expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE).
- Homebuilders Accelerate: This situation has injected new enthusiasm into the residential property sector. Major homebuilders Persimmon plc and Barratt Redrow plc both rocketed upwards by more than 4.0%, reflecting expectations of a recovery in mortgage demand (mortgage rate relief).
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✅ Price Action Analysis (H4/H1 Structure)
- Market Structure: Macroeconomically, the FTSE 100's main trend remains bullish. This is confirmed by the formation of an upward trend from the base of ~10,700 to a Higher High (HH) peak around 10,990.0.
- Current Price Action: At 10,858.6, the price is experiencing a corrective pullback. Selling pressure is evident, pushing the price down from the peak, but the decline stalled just above the dynamic Support Becomes Resistance (SBR) area around 10,840.0 - 10,850.0 (dotted horizontal line). The appearance of a lower wick on the last candle indicates the influx of buying interest.
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✅ Key Zones:
- Resistance/Supply Zone: Range 10,960.0 - 10,990.0 (uppermost peak area of Major Supply).
- Support / Demand Zone: Range 10,840.0 - 10,860.0 (the nearest SBR zone where the price is currently resting) and range 10,790.0 - 10,820.0 (Major Demand Zone).
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✅ Orderflow / Volume Profile Analysis (VPVR)
The Volume Profile histogram on the right side of the chart provides a very precise mapping of liquidity:
- Point of Control (POC) / High Volume Node (HVN) Above: A very thick volume spike is visible in the range 10,880.0 - 10,900.0. This area acts as a nearby orderflow resistance barrier that was recently broken downwards.
- Low Volume Node (LVN) / Volume Support Area: Below the current price (around 10,830.0 - 10,850.0), volume distribution appears to thin out before regrouping in the lower demand area (10,800.0). As long as the price remains above the SBR zone of 10,840.0, buyers still have a chance to maintain control.
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✅ Elliott Wave Analysis
Mapping the wave cycle movement on the chart:
- Wave Structure: The sharp rally from the 10,700 base to the 10,990 peak is considered an impulsive impulse of Wave 3 or a large-scale Wave A.
- Projection: The corrective phase of Wave 4 is estimated to be nearing its completion (exhaustion) around the nearest SBR/Demand zone. Once Wave 4 is complete, the market is projected to launch a final impulsive impulse (Wave 5) to retest the record high area at 10,990+.