AMZN

To see why we initially got interested in Amazon refer to this article:

Where We Stand Now

With the position closed and the earnings catalyst absorbed, we return to the chart with fresh eyes. What was previously a setup with a defined catalyst is now a post-event structure and post-event structures require a different framework.

The honest assessment is this: Amazon is currently neither clearly bullish nor clearly bearish. If anything, the balance tilts slightly toward the bearish case from current levels, not because the business has deteriorated, but because the technical structure demands respect on both sides.

Scenario 1 - Bullish Continuation (40% probability)

The less likely outcome from here is that Amazon builds on the earnings-driven breakout, consolidates above the wedge resistance, now former resistance acting as new support and continues its rally toward the higher resistance level marked as Scenario 1 on the chart. For this to play out, the wedge resistance must hold as support on any pullback and price must demonstrate the ability to make new highs with conviction. This is a meaningful level. Breaking and holding above it with volume would be a powerful signal. But the probability is lower precisely because the market has already absorbed the positive catalyst. Post-earnings rallies frequently exhaust buying pressure at the first major resistance they encounter.

Scenario 2 - Corrective Move Toward Support (60% probability)

The more likely path from current levels is a corrective move back toward the support zone marked as Scenario 2, a genuine confluence of three independent levels arriving at approximately the same price. The horizontal support that has been respected multiple times, the channel support that has contained price throughout the corrective structure, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire wedge move all converge at this zone. Three methods, one level.

This is not a bearish thesis on Amazon. It is a structural observation, that the wedge resistance has been hit, the earnings catalyst has been priced in, and the stock is now at a natural decision point where the weight of evidence slightly favours a pause and digestion rather than immediate continuation. A 60% probability is not a certainty. It is a lean. We treat it as such.

What We Are Watching

We are not currently in a position. We exited cleanly at the target. From here, we watch rather than act, until the structure tells us which scenario is unfolding.

If price holds the wedge resistance as support and begins building a base above it, we will reassess the bullish case with fresh eyes and a defined entry. If price breaks back below the wedge and begins moving toward the Scenario 2 confluence, we will watch that zone carefully, a three-way support confluence at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of a major impulse move is exactly the kind of level where high-probability entries emerge.

The trade is not always being in a position. Sometimes the trade is watching, waiting, and being ready.

Capital preservation first. Confirmation before conviction.