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■ ETH VOLATILITY WINDOW: AROUND AUGUST 12

Following the end of BTC's short-term volatility cycle,
the next major volatility window to watch is ETH.

Expected volatility window:

▶ Around August 12
▶ Estimated range: August 11-13

ETH is currently attempting to rebound from its lower price zone.

However, for this move to develop beyond a simple technical rebound
and turn into a meaningful bullish trend reversal, ETH needs to:

▶ Break above 1964.96
▶ Hold above 1964.96


The reason is that ETH has been forming a
"step-down" bearish structure.

To confirm that this step-down structure is ending,
price needs to recover above the previous HA-Low
and successfully hold that level as support.

In other words:

Break above 1964.96
↓
Hold above the level
↓
Recover the previous HA-Low
↓
Step-down structure begins to weaken
↓
Probability of a bullish trend reversal increases

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■ HA-Low / HA-High: PRIMARY TRADING LEVELS
==========================================


The most important indicators used for actual trade execution
on this chart are:

▶ HA-Low
▶ HA-High

The following indicators are used as confirmation tools:

▶ StochRSI
▶ OBV
▶ BSSC

The basic concept is simple.



HA-Low / HA-High
→ "Where should I trade?"



StochRSI / OBV / BSSC
→ "Are the conditions strong enough to actually take the trade?"

Therefore, I do not buy simply because StochRSI is oversold,
nor do I automatically sell because StochRSI is overbought.

The first step is to determine where price is located
relative to HA-Low and HA-High.

---

## ▶ HA-Low

HA-Low represents a potential LOW ZONE.

When price approaches HA-Low and successfully finds support,
the area may become a potential BUY ZONE.

---

## ▶ HA-High

HA-High represents a potential HIGH ZONE.

When price approaches HA-High and gets rejected,
the area may become a potential SELL / PROFIT-TAKING ZONE.

However, because HA-Low and HA-High are displayed as single lines,
it can sometimes be difficult to identify the broader low
and high zones for actual trading.

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■ DOM(-60) / DOM(60): DEFINING LOW & HIGH ZONES
===============================================


To solve this issue, I developed:

▶ DOM(-60)
▶ DOM(60)



Represents a potential LOW ZONE.

Used together with HA-Low to identify
potential accumulation and buy areas.



Represents a potential HIGH ZONE.

Used together with HA-High to identify
potential profit-taking areas.

Therefore, actual trading decisions can be based on:

HA-Low
DOM(-60)
HA-High
DOM(60)

The overall structure can be summarized as follows:

DOM(-60) / HA-Low
↓
LOW ZONE
↓
Potential accumulation / buy zone

HA-High / DOM(60)
↓
HIGH ZONE
↓
Profit protection / scale-out zone

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■ STRATEGY WHEN HA-Low FAILS
============================


If price fails to hold HA-Low and moves lower,
a step-down bearish structure may continue.

However, a break below HA-Low does not necessarily mean
that the entire position should immediately be closed.

A prolonged step-down structure will eventually form
a new bottoming area and attempt a bullish reversal.

Therefore, the key response to an HA-Low breakdown is not:

"Sell 100%"

but rather:

"Secure liquidity through partial position management."

---

##

HA-Low support fails
↓
Partially reduce the position
↓
Increase cash reserves
↓
Monitor the next decline
↓
Price approaches a new DOM(-60) / HA-Low
↓
Check for support
↓
Rebuy the amount previously sold
↓
Add to the position after support is confirmed

This strategy allows traders to maintain liquidity
during a declining market while adjusting their average entry price
and gradually increasing the total position size.

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■ STRATEGY WHEN HA-High BREAKS
==============================

On the other hand,
if price breaks above HA-High and continues higher,
a step-up bullish structure may begin to develop.

However, a step-up structure will eventually form a high
and transition into a corrective phase.

Therefore, positions accumulated around
HA-Low or DOM(-60) should gradually focus on:

▶ Scaling out
▶ Taking profits
▶ Protecting profits

as price approaches HA-High or DOM(60).

---

##

Price approaches HA-High / DOM(60)
↓
Step 1: Scale out part of the core position
↓
Lock in profits
↓
Check whether HA-High converts into support
↓
Support confirmed + bullish momentum continues
↓
Day-trading opportunity

There is one important point.

HA-High fundamentally represents a HIGH ZONE.

Therefore, even if price breaks above HA-High,
holds it as support and continues higher,
a new position opened in this area should not be treated
the same way as a core position accumulated near HA-Low.

Instead, it should be treated as a:

"Short-term / Day-Trading Position"

Any trade entered around HA-High must have:

▶ A clearly defined stop-loss level.

If a reasonable stop-loss level cannot be determined,

▶ The day trade should NOT be taken.

The reason is simple:

HA-High represents a potential high-price zone.

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■ CURRENT ETH PRICE STRUCTURE
=============================


ETH is currently moving higher from the important range of:

▶ 1597.76 - 1879.61

and is attempting to challenge:

▶ 1964.96

The supporting indicators are currently showing
somewhat different signals.

---

##

StochRSI is approaching the overbought zone.

This increases the possibility of:

▶ Weakening short-term momentum
▶ A short-term pullback
▶ Sideways consolidation to reset the indicator

---

##

On the other hand,
OBV has moved above the High Line,
indicating strong buying pressure.

Therefore, the key question for ETH is:

"Can this buying pressure be sustained?"

If OBV remains above the High Line
while price holds above 1879.61,

ETH may be able to reset its overbought StochRSI
without experiencing a significant price decline.

In other words, we could see:

"Time-based consolidation rather than a deep price correction."

The ideal bullish structure would be:

OBV remains above High Line
+
Price holds above 1879.61
+
StochRSI resets
↓
Another attempt to break 1964.96
↓
Breakout above 1964.96
↓
1964.96 converts into support
↓
Probability of a bullish trend reversal increases

Strong buying pressure could also push ETH directly above 1964.96
without a meaningful correction.

However, if StochRSI enters the overbought zone
and buying pressure begins to weaken at the same time,
upside momentum may become limited
and another short-term pullback could follow.

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■ AUGUST 12: TWO KEY PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH
==========================================

Considering the current price structure
and the relationship between:

HA-Low / HA-High
DOM(-60) / DOM(60)
StochRSI / OBV / BSSC

the location of ETH during the next volatility window
will be extremely important.

Next volatility window:

▶ Around August 12
▶ August 11-13

The two most important price levels are:

▶ 1782.28
▶ 1964.96

---

## PRICE NEAR OR ABOVE 1964.96

Break above 1964.96
↓
Hold above 1964.96
↓
Previous HA-Low recovered
↓
Step-down bearish structure weakens
↓
Probability of a bullish trend reversal increases

---

## PRICE NEAR 1782.28

Failure to break 1964.96
↓
Price correction
↓
Test support around 1782.28
↓
Determine the next directional move

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■ FINAL CHECKPOINT
==================

Next volatility window:

▶ Around August 12
▶ August 11-13

Key price levels:

▶ 1782.28
▶ 1879.61
▶ 1964.96

Key factors to monitor:

▶ Breakout and support above 1964.96
▶ Ability to hold above 1879.61
▶ OBV holding above the High Line
▶ StochRSI reset after entering the overbought zone
▶ Support around HA-Low / DOM(-60)

Ultimately, the key question during this volatility window
is not simply:

"Can ETH break above 1964.96?"

The more important question is:

"Can ETH break above 1964.96 and HOLD above it?"

If ETH successfully breaks above 1964.96
and converts the level into support,
the probability of transitioning out of the current
step-down bearish structure will increase significantly.

On the other hand,
if the breakout fails,
the next important factor will be whether ETH
can establish support around 1782.28.

Therefore, August 11-13 may become
an important volatility window for determining
ETH's next major directional move.

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Thank you for reading.

Wishing you successful trading.