BTC – The 2022 Mid-Term Bear Market Structure

Following my previous analysis of the 2018 cycle, I looked at Bitcoin's 2022 bear market to see whether a similar mid-year pattern emerged. Interestingly, despite different macroeconomic conditions, the price structure shares several characteristics.

The sequence unfolded as follows:

February: First significant low established after the initial decline.
Late March – Early April: Strong relief rally that brought optimism back into the market.
June: Liquidity sweep below the February low, shaking out late buyers.
July – Early August: Another recovery rally as price reclaimed the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB).
Late August: The entire rally was retraced, with sellers regaining control.
September – October: Tight consolidation with declining volatility and little directional movement.
November: Final capitulation triggered by the FTX collapse, marking the cycle low.
After November: Bitcoin reclaimed the BMSB, established a higher low, and began the next bull market.

One important observation is that the February low remained the structural reference point for most of the year, even after the June liquidity sweep. The market repeatedly attempted to recover but failed until the final capitulation reset sentiment completely.

This reinforces a recurring theme in Bitcoin's major bear markets:

Relief rallies occur throughout the year.
Liquidity sweeps remove weak hands.
Markets spend months ranging before the final move.
The true trend reversal usually begins only after the final capitulation and a successful reclaim of the Bull Market Support Band.

This isn't meant to predict future price action. It's simply a study of historical market structure and how Bitcoin has behaved during previous mid-term bear market years.

Do you think the current cycle is developing in a similar way, or has Bitcoin matured enough that this time will be different?