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The Waning Moon often aligns with periods of weaker market sentiment, potentially offering opportunities for accumulation.

The Waxing Moon, on the other hand, is frequently associated with increased volatility or potential market turning points, reminding us to stay alert for risk.

Looking at the BTC daily chart, we can see that the Moon Phase indicator has only failed twice:

· Early February 2026: Geopolitical tensions escalated as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified.
· Early June 2026: Market disruption caused by Michael Saylor/Strategy selling BTC for the first time.

Both failures occurred under similar conditions:
Excessive market leverage + negative macro/geopolitical catalysts + weakening institutional demand, leading to liquidation events.

Excluding these two abnormal events, the Moon Phase cycle has maintained an accuracy rate of nearly 80% over the past year.
This is something we cannot ignore!


Key Levels I'm Watching

BTC is currently trading around $63K.
· At this level, we have confluence between:
· H4 bullish Order Block
· Daily consolidation range POC

Below, the $61.2K area is another important zone, with confluence between:
· Value Area Low
· 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level
· A major liquidation zone where many long positions are concentrated


My expectation is that this Waning Moon cycle could bring a strong rebound.

The key question now:
Will BTC reclaim higher levels, or will we first see a liquidity sweep toward the downside before the next move?