We've shown lately how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has entered the final stages of its Bear Cycle, where most likely one final strong decline will form the bottom. An overlooked, but very powerful historically, indicator relative to market bottoms is the CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed) and comes to compliment that idea of the final stages.

It is an on-chain indicator, that calculates the cumulative sum of "Coin Days Destroyed" (value-time destruction) as coins move from old to new hands, weighted by the USD value at transfer time.

On the massive June Bearish Leg, BTC hit the shifted CVDD (black trend-line) and has since turned sideways on it. This consolidation could technically be the signal before the final strong Bearish Leg. The actual CVDD (green trend-line) currently sits around $48100 but marginally trending downwards.

It is interesting to mention that during the past three Cycles, the CVDD got hit twice (on each Cycle). Two times in 2022, one time in 2018 and 2020 and two times in 2015. It also priced accurately the 2011 bottom.

Notice also that in the past two Cycles, BTC spent at least 4 months on its CVDD while 2015 mostly spent it on the shifted line. This indicates that even one direct hit on the CVDD is enough to price the Cycle bottom.

As a result, a CVDD touch in the next 2 months at $50000 would be a very realistic scenario and is aligned perfectly with a number of other accurate Cycle bottom indicators as we've shown before.

On a side-note, observe also the useful role of the 1W MA50 (blue dotted trend-line). After the CVDD historically prices the Bear Cycle bottom, a break soon after above the 1W MA50 comes to confirm the start of the new Bull Cycle.

Key Aspects of CVDD to keep in mind:

- Purpose: It acts as a reliable support line for Bitcoin price floors, often signaling when the market is deeply undervalued.
- Components: It combines Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) with the USD valuation of transactions to track when long-term holders (old hands) sell to new investors.
- Formula & Calculation: The metric is derived by multiplying a ratio of cumulative CDD and market age by a factor of 6 million.
- Top Indicator: While primarily a bottom indicator, it is sometimes used in tandem with multipliers (e.g., 5x or 10x) to signal when the market is overheated.

So do you think the Bear Cycle bottom will once again be formed on the CVDD and if so is $50000 a fair estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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